Dave

Ooh ooh, John McCain. You pissed off Letterman.

My question: Was Keith Olbermann a scheduled guest or a last minute replacement? Because a McCain/Olbermann show would have been fascinating to watch.

You really need to watch this clip through to completion.

Fuzzy Math

Electoral math. I fucking love it.

Yes, it’s true. It is trendy here in America of the early 21st Century to question the need for the Electoral College and to call for a direct election of the President of the United States via the popular vote. This is nonsense—and our Founding Fathers knew it.

The Electoral College is the only reason why any national politician cares about states like New Hampshire, Montana, or Hawaii. To win the presidency you must reach 270 electoral votes. It matters not whether you secure a popular vote victory. All that matters is the Electoral College—and to win there, you need to run a national campaign. No one region carries enough votes to get you to the magic number. You need votes from them all.

The downside to this, of course, is that votes cast in non-contested states (like the Commonwealth of Massachusetts) have less impact than votes cast in contested states (like Virginia and Colorado.) But it also protects against some neo-confederate southern pederast from racking up huge vote totals in the in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and across the Deep South and then strolling into the White House. So suck it up. This is the best system we’ve got, and it ain’t going anywhere.

Anyway. Where was I?

Oh yeah. So, the reality of this system is that both Barack Obama and John McCain figure they have a certain amount of electoral votes already in hand, and that this race will be decided by a handful of so-called “swing” states. The breakdown, as of this writing, looks pretty much like this:

Solid Obama States: California (55 electoral votes), Illinois (21), New York (31), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Washington DC (3), Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), Maryland (10) and the homestead, Hawaii (4).

Strongly Leaning to Obama: Oregon (7), Washington (11), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), and Maine (4)

Solid McCain States: Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), Wyoming (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Alaska (3), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (34), Louisiana (9), Arkansas (6), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), South Carolina (9), and my personal favorite, West Virginia (5).

Strongly Leaning to McCain: Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Indiana (11), Georgia (15), and North Carolina (15).

Whew. That sure is a lot of states. Feel free to check my math (a fun tool can be found here) but at the moment Barack Obama is sitting on 200 electoral votes. John McCain, on the other hand, is sitting on 189. If any of the above states swing the other way, the candidate who loses there will be in serious trouble. However, neither of these totals will get it done, and this brings us to…

The “Swing” States: Colorado (9), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).

Now, a word on these swing states: They are “swing” only because the pundit class has decided that they could go either way come November 4th. For some of them this is certainly true. For others it is absolutely not. So while it may look like there are still 149 electoral votes up for grabs, the actual number is much less than that.

The Phony Swing States: Michigan and Wisconsin are blue states. The final vote totals may be close, but a close win is still a win. If McCain can steal either of these it means he is winning by a landslide elsewhere. Florida and Ohio, meanwhile, are absolutely, positively and without doubt red states. Ohio was red in 2000, was red in 2004, and it will be red again come November. As for Florida, you can say what you want about 2000, but it wasn’t that close in 2004 and will not be again in 2008. (For the record, I blame the elderly in Florida and the homophobes in Ohio who were more scared of gay marriage than they were George W. Bush. And also for the record, these are the exact people that Washington and Adams and Jefferson and Madison did not want directly electing the President of these United States. Thank you, Electoral College, thank you.)

Updated Totals: John McCain leads Barack Obama 236-227 with 75 votes still to be decided. McCain is 34 votes from victory; Barack Obama 43. From here almost anything can happen.

How Barack Obama wins: Obama needs Iowa, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire in any scenario. Iowa is the safest bet—it went for Gore in 2000 and is a border state to Illinois. Pennsylvania is still Pennsylvania, and that is not a good thing for any left-leaning candidate with dark skin and an exotic name. But for the Democrats to win this election they need to win the home state of Rick Santorum. New Hampshire is not a blue state—far from it in fact—and at one time the Granite State held great affection for John McCain. Still, John Kerry did win there in 2004. If Obama cannot duplicate that feat in 2008, he will not win this election.

Assuming he is able to win those three states, he will be sitting on 259 electoral votes and still need help. Where does it come from? Two scenarios stand out:

Colorado and New Mexico: Of the two, this is the outcome that most pundits seem to think has the best chance of coming to pass. Colorado is a state that has been increasingly referred to as purple. It has a popular Democratic Governor in Kathleen Sebelius, a major metropolitan city in Denver, and no love for the government of George W. Bush. Bill Clinton won there in 1992, but he was the last Democrat to do so and was unable to repeat in 1996. Clinton was hurt that year by Ross Perot—who captured 6.6% of the vote—and it remains unclear what impact Libertarian Bob Barr and Egomaniac Ralph Nader will have this time around. But if Obama can pull it off he picks up another nine votes.

As for New Mexico, Clinton won there twice and Gore made it three in a row in 2000, but John Kerry lost by a razor-thin margin four years later. What worries me here is that Arizona lies just to the west, and John McCain will be able to pick some votes up based on that alone. If Obama does somehow manage to win the Land of Enchantment (you do have to love that nickname) then the five electoral votes he picks up will put him over the top. Your total in this scenario: Barack Obama 273—John McCain 265.

Virginia: Obama needs both Colorado and New Mexico to win in the above scenario, and if he loses either then he needs to find another state to make up the difference. The Commonwealth of Virginia, once one of the reddest states in the union (and before that home to the Capitol of the Confederacy) has slowly been turning purple. That is to say at least as far as Arlington and Annandale and Alexandria are concerned. Plus, Virginia has a huge black population. If they turn out big for Obama (and you have to imagine they will) he may just have a shot at taking down these 13 electoral votes. That will give him 272 (assuming he loses both Colorado and New Mexico) and make him the president-elect. Unfortunately, this scenario is still far-fetched at this point. The southern part of Virginia is still the south. A McCain loss here would stun many analysts and shatter most projections. But it is possible.

Missouri: Here we have a state that is often pointed to as having swing potential, but very few actually seem to think it could break Obama’s way. I say poppycock. In Mizzou we have a state that voted for Bill Clinton twice. We also have a state where Al Gore was clearly hurt by Ralph Nader in 2000…and that was on the same night that good ol’ John Ashcroft lost a senatorial race to a dead guy. (Yep. It happened.) Missouri is a border state to Illinois and much like McCain in New Mexico, that will help him. Regardless of what the polls say now, you have to think he at least has a fighting chance to make it close. There are eleven electoral votes at stake in the Show Me State and they may just show Barack Obama the presidency. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

How John McCain wins: This is where things get scary.

The GOP is coming off two consecutive wins, the second of which featured a larger margin of victory than the first. If McCain holds onto everything Bush won in 2004, he wins. If he loses Iowa and Colorado, but wins New Mexico, he wins. If he loses Virginia, but wins Iowa, he wins. If he loses Missouri but wins New Hampshire, he wins. In fact, if he wins New Hampshire, in almost any likely scenario, he wins.

God help us all.

George Will

We can add George Will to the list of true conservatives who have had it with John McCain.

"Conservatives who insist that electing McCain is crucial usually start, and increasingly end, by saying he would make excellent judicial selections. But the more one sees of his impulsive, intensely personal reactions to people and events, the less confidence one has that he would select judges by calm reflection and clear principles, having neither patience nor aptitude for either.

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?"

$$$

It really is a good thing I'm not smart enough to understand economics. Otherwise, last week might have scared the shit out of me.

The Chilling Question

Peggy Noonan, still the best at what she does, poses a very chilling question: What if neither McCain nor Obama is up to the challenges ahead? What if neither is the right man for this moment in time?

(And, no, Hillary Clinton would not have been a better choice. With Clinton we would not have Palin, but we would have Romney and a new Bubba scandal or two. You do have to wonder who the New York liberal Noonan refers to is, and why that person is currently leaning towards John McCain. It is fantasy to think this house is not still divided.)

He's Barack Obama...

...and he approves this message.

I do wonder how much of Carly we'll get to see following her proclamation that while Palin may be fit to be VP, she isn't nearly qualified to run HP. I'm torn, because less of Carly is a good thing...but she did make for one nice and easy target.

Hence the ad below.

The Big Question

Do rational and intelligent conservatives outnumber the PUMAs? These two groups will tip this election one way or the other.

This piece (from Texas of all places) is well worth a read.

Also, as I've said before, If you aren't reading Andrew Sullivan you really should be. He is a brilliant anti-McCain/Palin conservative who I regularly steal from...I mean borrow from...I mean who is a great influence to this blog.

The Obama Plan

The voters he needs to reach will never read his plan, but maybe some of them will be sold anyway. That this election is this close, given the current state of this nation, speaks volumes about us. And none of it is good.

Decision 2008: Now With More Sexism!

Carly Fiorina continues to help women everywhere by fighting the evils of sexism. Her latest target? Tina Fey.

It just keeps getting more and more ridiculous, doesn't it?

Sexism! Again! Sexism! Code Red! Sexism!

Just in case there was any doubt, I do lay the blame for this current mess squarely at the feet of the junior Senator from the State of New York.

Had Barack Obama acted like Al Sharpton, he would have been chased from this race in disgrace. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, channeled her inner Sharpton, seized his “victim” message, replaced the word “racism” with the word “sexism”, and changed the political climate of an entire nation.

And all this while John McCain, Sarah Palin, Karl Rove and the whole gang laugh their into another four years.

Thanks, Hillary. You really outdid yourself this time

Fool Me Once...

Ben Smith reports that the next time we see a Palin Q&A, Sean Hannity will be asking the questions. The Gibson interview may mark the closest she will come to a tough question.

I'm sorry, what?

What follows is fascinating. Based on the clip below (which is all we have to go on since Governor Sarah Palin has been shielded from the media more than any politician since Ronald Reagan went senile in the summer of 1985) does it not seem like she has no idea what Charlie Gibson is talking about when he asks her about the Bush Doctrine? The notion that we have a fundamental right to preemptively strike any nation which poses a potential threat is central to the reasoning behind why we are currently at war in Iraq. This is a war Gov. Palin wholeheartedly supports. Yet, when questioned, she is clearly unable to determine what Gibson is referring to when he mentions the Bush Doctrine.

This is who John McCain would trust to lead us after he is gone. This is the best they could do. This is a bad joke.

The Lipstick And The Pig

From the New York Times:

“John McCain says he’s about change, too — except for economic policy, health care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy and Karl Rove-style politics,” Mr. Obama told his supporters here. “That’s just calling the same thing something different.”

With a laugh, he added: “You can put lipstick on a pig; it’s still a pig. You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change; it’s still going to stink after eight years.”

How, exactly, is that a smear on Gov. Sarah Palin? When you chase windmills looking for offense, you only hurt your cause. Hillary Clinton—and her supporters—embarrassed true feminists everywhere with their constant claims of sexism where there was none. There were true instances, to be sure, but they were few and far between and most wound up being lost amid the storm of phony accusations. At the time I believed we were witnessing the low point of this election cycle.

I was wrong.

The McCain campaign has managed to lower that bar even further. The pig is John McCain’s policy, not his running mate. The fool is anyone who believes otherwise.

Sarah Palin and the End of the Line

Last night, Alaska Governor and McCain VP choice Sarah Palin took to the stage in St. Paul. It was a historic moment. For the very first time, a non-white/non-male had been nominated to a national ticket by the Republican Party. Her speech was the main event of the evening, and any reminiscence of the tepid applause given to Joe Lieberman the night before was gone. The room erupted for Sarah Palin.

The moment was historic for another reason as well. It marked the end of my interest in the 2008 Republican National Convention. The shameful parading of the Palin family, of the baby, of the pregnant daughter, of the "fiance", of the husband, was the final straw. You cannot cry that your family should be off limits and then parade them on national television for the world to see.

The picture last night spoke the thousand words that McCain's people had hoped it would. For all the talk of Sarah Palin's conservative credentials, what she brings most to this ticket is an illusion of victimhood. Any bit of skepticism is labeled as an attack, and the attacked must be sympathized with and defended.

Poor Sarah Palin. Why is the big bad eastern media establishment so mean to her? Why are they asking questions about her ties to radical Alaskan separatists? Why are they drudging up these stories of trooper firings and accusations of abuses of power? It must be sexism. Or maybe it is elitism.

No. It is journalism. The press these last few days has dug up Palin's past because that is their responsibility, just as it was John McCain's responsibility to know these skeletons before making his selection.

In a normal election year, these stories would have been enough to scare off any selection committee. But this is not a normal election year, and the great lesson of the Hillary Clinton campaign is that victimhood can be a great asset. John McCain has his victim, and the GOP has their unity.

For me, the image from last night that will always remain is that of the baby, Trig, being passed down the line of family and friends like a hot potato.

Here, hold Trig long enough for the camera to see and then pass him along. Make sure everybody gets a turn.

It was the very worst, and most blatant, display of cynical politics I have ever witnessed, and for me it marks the end of the line with this year's RNC. They do not deserve my attention, and tonight they will not have it.

MoDo MoFo

Maureen Dowd is awesome:

"When you make a gimmicky pick of an unknown, without proper vetting, there’s bound to be a sticky press conference sooner or later. I watched it happen with Ferraro and Quayle, and I watched Mondale and Poppy Bush curdle with embarrassment but plow through.

The political unknowns, of course, want that tantalizing brass ring, so they’re not always completely forthcoming about their skeletons, if they’re lucky enough to be ineptly vetted. This is ironic, since the nominee who gets blindsided with these crises — Did McCain really know that this Palin reality show was about to pop and swallow his convention — is presenting them to voters as the most trustworthy people to inherit the nuclear codes.

Because Ferraro grabbed at the chance, without revealing to Mondale’s incompetent vetting team how damaging some of her husband’s financial imbroglios could be, she went from being a female icon to part of the reason it’s taken a quarter-century for another party to take a chance on a woman.

When McCain gets in trouble, he pulls out the P.O.W. card. Now Republicans are pulling out the sexist card.

Hillary cried sexism to cover up her incompetent management of her campaign, and now Republicans have picked up that trick. But when you use sexism as an across-the-board shield for any legitimate question, you only hurt women. And that’s just another splash of reality."

The RNC: Madness in Minnesota

But first some bookkeeping:

Please accept my sincere apologies for the lack of coverage of the Democrats’ final night in Denver. Life intervened and I missed both Obama and Big Al enjoying their moments.

Do I regret it? No. I was burnt out and needed the night off.

As for the new 90210…wow. It was in fact as bad as many had imagined it would be. I cannot argue the point. But pilot episodes of eventually good shows are often brutal, so I will say the jury is still out.

And I do still love me some Jennie Garth.

Meanwhile in Minnesota:

The crew is spread out tonight. Chris Matthews is running the show in St. Paul while Keith Olbermann is at the anchor desk back in New York. Is this because of Gustav or the on-air tensions that arose last week in Denver? Vegas has the tension listed at 2-1. I’d take that bet.

8:35pm: Pat Buchanan argues that Barack Obama “likes the idea” of partial-birth abortion. Once McCain and Palin win, they will overturn Roe. “Then we’ll throw it back to the states and let’s get it on!” Pat is fired up—and clearly exhibiting every reason why so many people do hate him.

8:41: Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas stops by to tell us all about Sarah Palin. She is a breath of fresh air, a reformer from the Teddy Roosevelt mold. Oh, and her kid has Down syndrome. Wow. That was not subtle. I really do feel for each and every one of the Palin children. This is not their fault.

8:45: Cindy McCain has her adopted daughter with her in the balcony. This is notable because there is a video tribute to white people who adopt children of color and are not named Angelina Jolie playing on the big screen. Do you think that was planned? I’m shocked.

9pm: Olbermann checks in to update us on the night’s schedule. President Bush is in, via closed circuit from the White House, and Rudy Giuliani is out. A hellish trifecta lay ahead: Bush, Fred Thompson, and Joe Lieberman. I really should be drinking.

Tom Ridge: Sarah Palin will help us in states like New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I run through a list of snippy comebacks in my head before realizing he is probably right. These are exactly the states where the PUMAs will do the most damage.

Matthews: Admit it; this selection was all about Hillary Clinton.

Ridge, with a coy smile: No…

The bad moon continues to rise.

9:05: Former President and First Lady George and Barbara Bush appear on the convention floor before taking their seats. He looks very old. She looks exactly the same.

9:09: Utah Senator Orrin Hatch got tears in his eyes when he realized the Republican Party was going to put the first woman into the White House. And the media needs to back off, because women are UNHAPPY! We know he means it because tonight he has forgone the trademark bowtie. Hatch…unplugged!

With the senator is McCain strategist Carly Fiorina, herself notable for recently holding a clandestine meeting with several key supporters of Hillary Clinton, among them the once and future candidate’s brother. I was under the impression the meeting took place in Pennsylvania, but Fiorina seems to indicate that it was actually Ohio. Her smugness in this interview is infuriating. Why am I not drinking?

9:14: Tom Brokaw and Chuck Todd discuss the first President Bush, and I’m reminded of something I heard former Massachusetts Governor and vanquished presidential candidate Michael Dukakis say a few weeks ago:

“You know, this really is all my fault. If I had only beaten the old man then no one would have ever heard of the son and we wouldn’t be in this mess. I am so sorry.”

Well, Mike…you fucking should be.

9:19: Chuck Todd notes the strange of absence of Jeb Bush at this convention. “If his last name wasn’t Bush, he would be on this ticket.” Interesting. I think we are all happier that he is not, with the possible exception of Bristol Palin.

9:37: Lt. Dan Taylor, aka actor Gary Sinise, narrates a video tribute to a fallen Navy SEAL and Medal of Honor winner whose name I miss each time it is said. This is a much darker theme than anything we saw in Denver. The SEALs in attendance get a well-deserved standing ovation. Then the Medal of Honor winners get their own round of applause. The GOP’s dominance of the military is on display here.

Um, this can’t be the way they are going to segue to President Bush, can it? Are we going to get a picture from the one day he showed up for duty with the Texas Air National Guard? The SEALs deserve better than that.

9:44: No, there is the First Lady to introduce hubby. Keith points out that it has been decades since a sitting president failed to appear at his party’s convention. I completely understand why Bush skipped out, but the fact will always be that had he paid this kind of attention to Katrina, he could have gone to the party in Minnesota. Nothing he does now is going to reverse that. And great job, Brownie.

Laura Bush lets us know that John McCain is a war hero and Sarah Palin is a proven executive and true reformer. Really? I hadn’t heard that. This seems like a good time to review the Republican talking points for St. Paul:

John McCain is a former POW.
John McCain is a war hero.
John McCain is a maverick reformer with a history of results.

Sarah Palin is a proven executive with real experience.
Sarah Palin comes from a good family that has the same problems all families have.
Sarah Palin is a reformer with a history of results.

If we were playing a drinking game and sipping each time one of these lines was spoken, we would be hammered right now. No, that isn’t quite true. We would have been hammered hours ago. By now we would be passed out.

Laura Bush has a detached manner of speaking that is reminiscent of Nancy Pelosi, and that is not a good thing. With Laura it is the smile that is plastic. With Nancy, it is the whole face.

Taken at face value, her remarks are all about the amazingly strong women of the Republican Party. Women like Sarah Palin who…

…wait for it…

…is a proven executive with real experience, and a reformer with a history of results. But what is actually being discussed is the division within the Democratic Party. Every time the theme of women comes up in St. Paul that is what is really being talked about. The women, the women, the women, and then we somehow finally segue to the President. I heard it live and am still not really sure quite how got there.

9:53: Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States! Live, via satellite.

John McCain is a great American (and in 5…4…3…2…1) a true war hero. Again, I had no idea.

The crowd is definitely subdued here. It might be the fact that he is onscreen rather than in person, or it might just be that after eight years of this guy even the Republicans have had enough. When you are talking about “tax relief” and “drilling” and still only getting muted applause from this crowd then things must be really, really, REALLY bad.

10pm: The networks cut in and anchors at NBC, ABC, and CBS all talk over the President. Olbermann laughs. So does Viall.

10:04: And now…a tribute to Ronald Reagan. Ugh.

10:07: Alright, I must now warn you. I’m really not sure I can do this tonight. Joe Lieberman is still a long way off and someone just claimed that Ronald Reagan “saved our century”. WTF? And when did Joe Lieberman become a headlining act, anyway?

10:08: Fred Thompson of Tennessee is at the podium, and he is greeted by more muted applause. This is unbecoming of an actor from Law and Order, and would never happen to the late Jerry Orbach.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Fred Thomson is a good actor, has a great voice, but was a terrible candidate. Just awful. And speeches like this are the reason why. Well, speeches like this and a lack of any real desire to campaign. That didn’t help.

But this just might be Fred at his best—or at least his best since The Hunt for Red October. He is finally fired up. The delivery is great. The deep voice with the southern twang lends itself to speechmaking. It sounds like he should be reading Cicero or narrating on the Discovery Channel.

But he’s not. He’s reading a prepared political speech, and the shine wears off as soon as we listen to the words. “Give me some Sarah Palin of the establishment in Washington any day!” Um…your party has controlled the White House for the last eight years, and congress for six of those eight years. (Remember, Fred, you were there.) What establishment are you talking about exactly?

Another Teddy Roosevelt reference goes by and I begin to wonder what that is all about. Is the GOP always touting Teddy as a hero? I’ve never noticed before. And what is this about “the draining of the swamp”? That is at least the third time we’ve heard that. Every speech tonight has contained the same talking points. Remarkable. And then, as if on cue:

“John McCain is a war hero.” (And in 5…4…3…2…1) “And, he’s a former POW.”

At that point I stop listening. Thompson drones on and on while I download some Pearl Jam and again contemplate a drink.

10:23: “Now, being a POW doesn’t qualify you to be president. But it does show character.” Absolutely, yes, a thousand times, yes. It absolutely shows character, and McCain is an amazing man for having survived that experience and thrived afterwards. But it has also become his first response to every issue, and its value is cheapened with every gratuitous usage. People who believe this is not the same John McCain we saw in 2000 are not wrong. The McCain back then didn’t lean on this like a crutch.

The crowd is chanting something that sounds like, “Beat LA! Beat LA!” Sorry, folks, Larry Bird is not walking through that door. (Hi, God? It’s me, Jim. Please don’t let Larry Bird walk through that door. Please?)

10:36: Olbermann: “That speech was akin to lining John McCain up next to a flag and a gun.” Indeed. Thompson apparently went long, because we are moving on with almost no down time.

10:39: Finally, Joe Lieberman has come back to St. Paul. The applause is some of the weakest we have heard all night, and that is saying something.

We begin with Gustav. “My friends, it shouldn’t take a hurricane to bring us together.” Actually, Joe, it took you selling out your party and country for Israel. But I digress.

He talks about George Washington warning against loyalty to any one political party. He does not follow up with Washington also warning against foolish military excursions in foreign lands.

We get a shot of Newt Gingrich smiling and laughing on the convention floor. What the hell am I watching?

OH! It is “USA, USA” they are chanting. That makes sense. If there were more than a few dozen voices, that might have been clear.

I lose track of the number of times that Lieberman refers to himself as a Democrat. This is news in and of itself because Lieberman has been an independent since 2006, when Democrats in Connecticut widely supported his primary opponent. It was only thanks to his new friends in the GOP that he returned to Washington.

Now he praises Bill Clinton. The response is as icy as you would expect.

Onto Governor Sarah Palin. She is a…

…wait for it…

…wait for it…

…wait for it…

…reformer! AND she gets results.

Iraq. The War on Terror. Iraq. The Middle East. Iraq. I have heard not a single mention of Afghanistan tonight. Are they even admitting that we are still fighting on two fronts? If America gives these fools four more years then we have no one to blame but ourselves. Lieberman is still talking, but I’ve had more than enough.

Although

They are doing a damn good job of making it look like they did not vet her at all. It becomes more convincing with each passing moment, in fact, but I remain unconvinced.

As always, I could be wrong.

To The Democrats

There is a bumpy road ahead and you should tread carefully.

It is almost beyond belief to think skilled Republican politicos selected a VP for John McCain with so little vetting. It makes for a good story and a better laugh, yes, but it simply cannot be true. They may have not known the number and depth of these Palin “scandals”, but they did know they existed—and they chose her anyway.

Why, you ask?

Because today Sarah Palin is under attack from both the Democratic Party and the media, and with each shot (cheap or legitimate) she takes, she is further transformed into the role the McCain campaign had in mind for her.

The victim.

The Palin nomination was always about the PUMAs first and foremost, and any casting of the governor in this light helps that cause. Soon her defenders will come out of the woodwork—many from within the Democratic Party itself—and the GOP will sit back and laugh.

It is already working. My own heart breaks for a 17 year old girl who first wound up pregnant and then five months later watched in horror as that pregnancy became a national news story. This girl’s life is none of our business, and it should have no baring on this contest between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Today the firestorm is fierce, but temporary. If Sarah Palin survives St. Paul and remains on the ballot, come November she will be an asset to the ticket. For all the wrong reasons, to be sure, but an asset nonetheless.